Forecasting and Business Analysis Research Paper

Forecasting and Business Analysis - Research Paper Example In order to plan for the feasibility of the expansion, they needed to forecast their sales for the period. As a reference to their sales forecast, the Recreational Good Retail Turnover estimate for 2010 is required. The Recreational Good Retail Turnover (RGRT) dataset is gathered starting April 1982 until the end of March 2010. Figure 1 is the graphical summary of the data per quarter of each year. It can be observed that the trend of RGRT is increasing every year with seasonal peaks by the fourth quarter of each year. Furthermore, it can be observed that a linear trend is visible starting from the year 2000 up to the present, thus, these dataset shall be significant. Accompanying the RGRT is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dataset is gathered from the start of September 1948 until the end of March 2010. The CPI is collected every quarter of the year. It can be observed that the CPI is also increasing through time. The method used for forecasting RGRT in this paper is autoregression (AR) model of univariate analysis. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), the AR(pmax) of RGRT is estimated. Lower order AR models are then determined until such time that Yp-1 is statistically significant or the P-value for testing Yp-1 = 0 is less than the chosen significance level of 0.05. In order to corrIn order to correct for the seasonality of the RGRT dataset, a method of calculating seasonal index is applied, wherein, the average seasonal index for each period is used as a multiplier for the regression equation (Rowbotham, Galloway, & Azhashemi, 2007). Other factors that can affect the RGRT are also checked for their statistical significance. These factors are unemployment rate, consumer price index and average weekly earnings of the population. Evaluations of results The unemployment rate, consumer price index and average weekly earnings are significant to the calculation for determination of RGRT forecast values. Appendix A shows the summary of fitted values for each factor. All factors show an increasing trend through time. This means that the increasing trend of RGRT is justified and it is safe to assume that there are no significant downward slope for the year to come. The AR model for RGRT is determined to be in the first-order as estimated by OLS. The RGRT model reduces to Yt = + Yt-1 + et where the fitted values are = 760.6366 and = 16.8146. The P-value for the equation is less than the signifiance level of 0.05 such that the model is considered as statistically significant. Appendix A provides the summary of other values of the regression equation for RGRT. The plot for the estimated values of the trend component is reflected in Figure 3. In order to allocate for the seasonality of RGRT, the average index per quarter is calculated. The index is computed as the predicted y-values using the regression equation divided by the actual y-values from the dataset (Rowbotham, Gall

The types of board diversity and its impact on board performance Essay

The types of board diversity and its impact on board performance - Essay Example This research will begin with the definition of diversity as the difference between things or people, the variety of assortment that makes us unique. Every person has unique skills, characteristics, and challenges that contribute much in the board performance. Despite that, the body structure is the same; physical characteristics differ making people have a greater deal of diversity. Diversity has the composition of age, gender, race, and ethnicity, education, physical appearance, political persuasion among others. It is the examination of these differences in a safe, affirmative, and fostering environment. Age diversity- workforce increasingly varied in age demographics, creating proficient environment loaded with experience and maturity as well as youthful enthusiasm. Companies that employ more workers in wide ranges of age have an advantage of creating a dynamic workforce with a diverse range of skills beneficial to the company. Gender diversity- it is an Umbrella term used by Aus tralians to swap transgender in a more comprehensive fashion. It is the skill of sex or gender identity beyond the biological and dual philosophy of male and female. It celebrates the diversity in gender identities rather than some categories of people. Gender composition in a workplace has its own advantages and disadvantages in the workforce. Most of the top boards in Australian do not have women. The following graph shows the percentage of women in 48 boards, in ASX 200 files. Available from: http://www.companydirectors.com.au/Director-Resource-Centre/Governance-and-Director-Issues/Board-Diversity/~/media/Resources/Director%20Resource%20Centre/Governance%20and%20director%20issues/Board%20diversity/Board%20Diversity%20images/Graph%20images/Percentageofwomen_19April.ashx?w=360&h=275&as=1 [accessed on May 03 2013] Race diversity- a race is a population distinguished from other populations within a species by hereditarily transmitted physical characteristics. It has a unique and distinct ensemble of genes and remains identified by this genetic ensemble. Members of the same race share distinguished genetic characteristics because they share the same ancestry. This also depends on language distribution. The following graph show race or ethnic diversity from a county make up. Available from: Http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl [accessed on May 06 2013] Culture diversity- this is about the ethnic groups, nationalities, lifestyles, and the educational level. Two people may appear similar on the outside but have different cultures, values, view points, and work styles. It is equally valuable for a business to acknowledge multiple cultures that exist within the work place. Mangers work in hand with the employees to ensure that their cultures remain respected. The following graph shows women cultural diversity on trusteeship in 1931. Available from: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl [accessed on May 06 2013] Religion diversity- people continue to express a high level of religion involvement that is highly significant and productive in both the work force and our daily lives. In the recent, religious discrimination, remain practiced highly in the workforce. This diversity contributes much in the performance of a company. Catholics and Christians have the highest percentage in Australia while others like Anglican, uniting church, Presbyterian and reformed among others follow. The following gr